No points for
second place.
Pternas is an arbitrage engine that uses frontier classification models to cross compare tens of thousands of events across culture, economics, politics, weather and sports in real time, finding discrepancies and violations with unmatched speed.
Relationship arbitrage
Equity curve
Every comparison
Positions & trades
How it works
Relationship Analysis
Pternas cross-compares tens of thousands of events on Kalshi and Polymarket, across culture, economics, geopolitics, politics, weather and sports. For each pair, a frontier classification model reads both markets' full resolution rules and returns a probability for each relationship: A implies B, B implies A, mutually exclusive, or exhaustive.
Probabilities, not prose
Because the output is a calculated probability rather than an LLM's free text, each judgment can be calibrated with thresholds, tuned against hand-labeled pairs and required to hold in both orders, which can make it reliable enough to act on without human review.
Re-priced live
Once a relationship is confirmed, Pternas re-prices the pair live, the moment either market moves, and paper-trades any price that violates it, buying every leg of the position or none. No real orders are ever placed.
Logical relationships over deterministic analysis
Most cross-market arbitrage models match similar market titles deterministically. Pternas judges how markets are logically related instead, in about 0.3 seconds per pair, run in parallel across many pairs, so it can screen thousands of pairs a rules-based matcher would never connect. An LLM can take several seconds per judgment.